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2026 February 11 - 17 TOP3 [US FORCES]

USFJ may retain both Futenma base even after new Henoko base is constructed

The U.S. military in Okinawa may continue to maintain the Futenma Air Station (Ginowan City) even after the new base under construction in Henoko (Nago City) as a replacement for the Futenma base is completed.

An active-duty U.S. Marine Corps officer has published a paper proposing that the Futenma base be retained for joint U.S.-Japan use even after the completion of the new base in Henoko. The paper is co-authored, with Lieutenant Colonel Caleb Eames listed as the lead author. It was made public on February 3 by the U.S. think tank Atlantic Council.

Akahata on February 12 argued that this is just a desk plan written by someone who does not know the reality of Okinawa, and that the proposal is absurd and unreasonable.

The paper states that “U.S. military crime rates on Okinawa are now far lower than in decades past,” but in fact, the number of criminal offenses committed by U.S. military personnel reported last year by the Okinawa Police was the highest in the past 20 years.

The paper also states that Futenma is currently “quieter”. However, associated with the deployment of MV-22 Osprey aircraft to Futenma, late-night flights have increased significantly. Flights by aircraft stationed at other U.S. bases in Japan have also increased. The extreme noise pollution caused by the Futenma base remains unchanged.

The paper highlights the importance of “economic incentives” in persuading Okinawans to accept the continued presence of U.S. bases. However, the economic dependency rate on U.S. military facilities in Okinawa has decreased from 15.5% in 1972, when Okinawa was returned to Japan, to around 5% today. The paper’s argument relies on the already failed logic that the mere existence of U.S. military facilities generates economic ripple effects.

On the other hand, the idea of “[k]eeping both Futenma and Schwab” as presented in the paper carries a certain degree of realism.

The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) in its 2017 report recommended considering the use of another runway in Okinawa on the grounds that a Henoko runway would be too short to handle emergency missions. Furthermore, in November 2023, a senior U.S. military officer in Okinawa during a briefing with local media said, “Simply from a military standpoint, it would be better to stay in Futenma,” given the delays in the new base construction in Henoko and potential capability problems arising from its short runway.

The new base construction is facing difficulties due to soft ground conditions at the site. At present, the project has no clear prospect for completion. Even if the base is completed, it may be unusable, which could explain why the U.S. military is reluctant to give up Futenma as previously agreed upon.